Grain market experts have updated forecasts for grain harvest in the Russian Federation in 2026. According to estimates by the ProZerno company and the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), the wheat harvest could reach 88.5 million tons versus 91.1 million tons in 2025, reports Interfax.
As stated by the general director of the ProZerno company, Vladimir Petrichenko, The wheat harvest forecast was raised to 88.5 million tons from the previous 87.5 million tons. “It was he who made the main increase in the overall estimate of the new harvest, which now amounts to almost 134.9 million tons compared to 134.3 million tons forecast in July,” he said.
The barley harvest forecast was increased by 0.9 million tons, to 19.8 million tons from 18.9 million tons. At the same time, the estimate for the harvest of leguminous crops was reduced to 5.1 million tons from the previous 5.6 million tons, corn - to 15 million tons from 15.6 million tons.
As Petrichenko explained, the increase in the wheat forecast is mainly due to updated Rosstat data on sown areas. “Data for Altai on the area of spring wheat has been updated,” he said. “In addition, the situation in a number of southern regions turned out to be better than it looked in July. At the same time, in the Volga and Black Earth regions it turned out to be a little worse.”
At the same time, the expert drew attention to the fact that this year in the Russian Federation “there is a record minimum sown area, which decreased by 6% compared to last year.” “But the yield is now very good, it differs quite a bit from the record that was in 2022. 32.8 c/ha of grain is now harvested from the sown areas, this is higher than last year, and slightly lower than the record of 2022, when it was 33.2 c/ha. That is, the second result in history,” Petrichenko said.
According to him, all these indicators do not take into account data for new regions. He estimates their harvest at 5.8 million tons.
According to ICAR General Director Rylko, The wheat harvest forecast has been reduced to 88.5 million tons from the previous 90 million tons. At the same time, the corn harvest estimate was increased to 16.5 million tons from 16 million tons, barley - to 19.3 million tons from 19 million tons.
At the same time, Rylko said that the data on the harvest this season is “fading into the shadows” in comparison with the new tasks associated with its implementation.
Due to difficulties in shipping and damage to port infrastructure by Ukrainian drones in the Azov-Black Sea basin, export demand for Russian grain has significantly decreased and prices for it have decreased. The Ministry of Agriculture is working on additional measures to support farmers in this situation and the use of alternative routes for the sale of grain and other export products.