The analysis is based on aggregated data provided by the wagon tracking service.
Explanation. Data are estimates and do not reflect all Russian wheat exports. Some shipments to port elevators may be carried out by road, while some rail shipments may be sent to stations adjacent to the elevators and not be included in export statistics. Export shipments mean nomination to an export station or port elevator, but not necessarily the actual export delivery. However, in a large sample one can see general trends characteristic of each period.
The analysis was carried out on data from four large producing regions located near the Black Sea ports:
- Krasnodar region;
- Stavropol Territory;
- Rostov region;
- Volgograd region.
Together, these four regions provide about 30% of Russian wheat production.
The dynamics of rail shipments correspond to the known increase in yields in southern Russia in 2026. Let us recall that in 2025 the Krasnodar region faced drought. In July 2025, almost 350 thousand tons of wheat were exported by rail, and in July 2026 - almost 850 thousand tons, that is, almost 2.5 times more.
Starting in August, the gap with last year began to narrow. In August 2025, about 700 thousand tons of wheat were shipped by rail for export, and in August 2026 - 860 thousand tons, only 23% more.
In September, this trend became even more obvious. For the entire September 2025, 620 thousand tons were shipped for export, and in the first 14 days of September 2026 - 285 thousand tons. In terms of a full month, this is almost the same 620 thousand tons as a year earlier.
In the geography of shipments, a 6–8-fold decrease in expected deliveries to export stations of the Krasnodar Territory is noticeable. At the same time, shipments to the Astrakhan region increased by almost 3.5 times year-on-year, and to Dagestan by 60%. Previously absent supplies of wheat from the southern regions to the ports of the Leningrad Region, St. Petersburg and Primorsky Territory appeared. In addition, wheat deliveries to the Baltic ports of Ventspils and Liepaja began in August.
It is especially interesting to evaluate alternative routes for the export of Russian wheat from four southern regions. Expected shipments through the ports of the Leningrad Region and Primorsky Territory in September will amount to about 400 thousand tons. Another about 70 thousand tons will be delivered through the Caspian ports and 55 thousand tons through the Baltic ports.
Thus, the reduction in Black Sea exports is so far partially offset by long-distance supplies of less than 550 thousand tons per month. For comparison, even against the backdrop of a poor harvest in the Southern Federal District in the previous two years, the Black Sea ports handled more than 2 million tons of wheat for export in September.
zerno.ru
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Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/34356