On December 19, 2025, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia reduced the key rate by 50 bp. — up to 16.00% per annum. The regulator notes the return of the economy to a balanced growth trajectory and a slowdown in the steady rate of price growth in November, while inflation expectations have risen in recent months and lending activity remains high.
The Bank of Russia intends to maintain tight monetary conditions for as long as necessary to return inflation to the target. Further decisions on the rate will depend on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown and the dynamics of expectations. According to the regulator's forecast, annual inflation will drop to 4.0–5.0% in 2026, stable inflation will reach 4% in 2H26, and in 2027 and beyond, inflation will remain on target.
In October-November, current seasonally adjusted price growth slowed to 4.6% y/y after 6.6% in 3Q25; Core inflation was 4.3% after 4.1% a quarter earlier. According to estimates as of December 15, annual inflation is 5.8%; by the end of 2025 it is expected to be below 6%. Price dynamics were noticeably affected by volatile items - motor fuel and fruits and vegetables.
The regulator expects disinflation to continue after the effects of the VAT increase and indexation of regulated prices and tariffs have been exhausted, which will be facilitated by strict DKU. The upward deviation of the economy from balanced growth is decreasing; demand is supported by income growth, lending and budget expenditures. Tensions in the labor market are decreasing, the personnel shortage is decreasing, plans for wage indexation for 2026 are more moderate than in 2023–2025, while unemployment remains at historical lows.
DCU have softened somewhat, but remain strict: money market rates and OFZ yields have decreased, lending rates have decreased slightly; non-price lending conditions are strict. Households maintain a high propensity to save; Retail lending is growing moderately, corporate lending is growing 2H25 faster than in 1H25. Pro-inflationary risks prevail (inflationary expectations, VAT and regulated prices, foreign trade, oil, geopolitics), disinflationary risks are associated with a stronger slowdown in demand. A summary of the rate discussion will be published on December 29, 2025; next meeting - February 13, 2026 (publication at 13:30 Moscow time).
Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/32016