Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia On September 11, he kept the key rate at 14% per annum, the regulator’s press service reports.
The Central Bank noted a significant increase in current price pressure in recent months. According to him, the steady rise in prices has accelerated to 5-6% in annual terms, mainly due to temporary reductions in production capacity in certain industries. Annual inflation as of September 7 was estimated at 6.3%.
In July, seasonally adjusted price growth was 11.6% in annual terms, compared to an average of 5.3% in the second quarter. Core inflation accelerated to 7% from 4.6%, respectively. The dynamics were significantly affected by prices for motor fuel and fruits and vegetables.
The Bank of Russia expects that as temporary factors weaken and demand growth remains subdued, persistent inflationary pressures will begin to decline again. In the base scenario, the regulator forecasts inflation in 2026 at 6–7%, returning to 4% in 2027 and maintaining it near the target in the future.
The economy in the third quarter, according to the Central Bank’s operational assessment, is growing at a moderate pace. Consumer demand is slowing down, investment activity is recovering, and the labor shortage is gradually decreasing. Unemployment remains near historic lows, although it has increased slightly in recent months.
The Bank of Russia assesses monetary conditions as moderately tight. Lending activity remains elevated, primarily in the corporate segment, and the population’s propensity to save has decreased slightly, remaining at a high level.
The regulator noted an increase in pro-inflationary risks. Among them are the possible persistence of supply and demand imbalances, high inflation expectations, wage growth faster than labor productivity, external price pressure and geopolitical tensions.
The next meeting of the Board of Directors on the key rate will take place on October 23.
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Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/34297