Wheat exports in September could reach 2 million tons, SovEcon predicts. At the same time, you should not rely on the ports of the Baltic countries in case of problems with shipments through the Azov-Black Sea basin, experts say.
In general, according to the SovEcon forecast, wheat exports for the entire 2026/27 agricultural season could amount to 41.4 million tons, grain exports in general - 49.4 million tons.
“Moreover, since the beginning of the season <from July 1, 2026> these estimates have been reduced by 5.1 million and 6.7 million tons, respectively. Taking into account the non-operating ports in the Black and Azov Seas, the forecasts are likely to decrease further,” the message quotes Interfax.
Under these conditions, experts say, there is no point in relying especially on the ports of the Baltic countries. “In the current conditions, they have indeed become an important direction for Russian exports. According to our estimates, they account for 10-20% of current monthly supplies,” the report says. “But during the season we can talk about a maximum of several million tons of grain. The maximum volumes that went through them in recent years are 2-3 million tons.”
In addition, there are political risks in this direction. Commenting on reports of the intention of Latvia and Lithuania to limit or completely stop transshipment of Russian grain through their ports, SovEcon noted that “with a strong desire and without prohibitions, with the help of red tape and semi-official restrictions, it is possible to squeeze supplies to almost zero.”
As reported, the Minister of Agriculture of Lithuania, Kestutis Mazeika, has already ordered “to immediately begin an investigation into the origin of all grain imported from Russia and Belarus, regardless of the destination.” This measure is aimed at eliminating the use of Lithuanian infrastructure for transporting grain from new regions of the Russian Federation.
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Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/34261