SovEcon raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 1.1 million tons to 45.7 million tons against 40.8 million tons a year earlier and 42.2 million tons on average over five years. The forecast was revised due to strong exports in recent months, as well as relatively strong official harvest figures.
Shipments of Russian wheat have increased significantly in recent months. In December, 4.2 million tons of wheat were shipped from Russia, which was the highest figure for the month in the last 8 years; in November, a record 5.2 million tons for the month.
Shipments are also expected to be relatively strong in the coming months on the back of strong demand from key importers. At the end of December, the Egyptian agency Mostakbal Misr purchased 0.7 million tons of wheat; It is likely that a significant portion of the volume will be Russian grain. The Saudi GFSA bought 907 thousand tons in mid-January (the maximum since February 2024), including grain from the Black Sea.
Relatively high supply of Russian wheat also contributed to higher export estimates. According to preliminary Rosstat data published in December, wheat production in 2025 amounted to 91.4 million tons, while most market estimates ranged from 88.0-89.0 million tons. In December, SovEcon estimated wheat production in 2025 at 88.8 million tons.
An export quota of 20 million tons for major grains will come into effect in mid-February, but according to our estimates, it will not have a noticeable impact on exports. Wheat exports during the quota period from mid-February to July are estimated at approximately 16 million tons.
The first wheat export forecast for 2026/27 is 39.6 million tons, which is 6.1 million below the estimate for the current season. Exports will decline due to reduced supply amid a relatively low harvest. SovEcon estimates wheat production in 2026 at 83.8 million tons.
Domestic consumption next season will not change as growth in livestock production slows to zero.
“In the coming months, we expect a slight increase in the pace of exports. However, we do not expect a fundamental increase in exports, given that a significant part of the reserves is located far from the export regions. In addition, the strong ruble, as well as stable export prices, are limiting factors,” analysts note.
Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/32267