SovEcon estimates wheat exports in December at 3.9 million tons, higher than 3.4 million tons a year earlier, and almost at the level of the record 4.1 million tons in 2022. Exports of Russian wheat accelerated against the backdrop of rising margins of export operations.
A decrease in domestic prices with stable export quotations led to an increase in the margins of wheat exports. From November to December, domestic prices for Russian wheat decreased by 5% to 13,200 rubles/t, against the background of which exporters’ margins increased from negative values to several dollars per ton.
Increased sales of wheat by agricultural producers contributed to a decline in domestic prices. In September-October, farmers sold 19.5 million tons of wheat, which was 2 million tons higher than last year and set a new record. Many agricultural producers were forced to sell crops at reduced prices in order to repay loans and finance the winter sowing campaign.
Demand for Russian wheat from key importers remains high. In November, Iran purchased 0.9 million tons, the maximum since the beginning of 2022. Türkiye purchased 2.8 million tons in the first half of the season, compared to 2.9 million tons for the entire last season.
Russia has also been actively exporting wheat in recent months. In November, Russian exporters shipped a record 5.1 million tons of wheat compared to 4.1 million tons a year earlier; in October – 5.5 million tons, slightly lower than last year’s record 5.6 million tons.
“In recent months, Russia has been gradually increasing its wheat shipments. However, due to the sluggish start to the season, total exports in July-December are still behind last year’s by 2.4 million tons and are estimated at 26.0 million tons. In the latest public forecast, published in November, SovEcon estimated Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season at 44.2 million tons,” analysts note.
Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/32061