During the reporting week, from 07/17/26 to 07/24/26, world wheat prices behaved in different directions. Price for:
The Chicago Corn Contract (CBOT, ZC) rose to 487.50 cents/bushel (+4.28%). The price of rice in Chicago (CBOT, ZR) fell to $13.98/cwt (-0.25%).
Russian indicative prices (FOB World Cup):
The Russian wheat index, CPT Novorossiysk, decreased to 14,827 rubles/t (-1.98%).
GRAIN MARKET NEWS
• The State Duma adopted in the third reading a law that provides for strengthening state control over grain circulation. We are talking about expanding control over the timely repayment of the shipping document for a consignment of grain or grain processing products (SDIS) in the FSIS "Grain". The Federation Council also approved the law at a plenary meeting. If the law is signed by the President of the Russian Federation, it will come into force on March 1, 2027.
• Fuel. The government said that the ban on the export of gasoline from the Russian Federation for producers and non-producers will be extended until the end of 2026. At the same time, the ban on diesel exports will be lifted as the market recovers. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that it is still premature to talk about complete stabilization of the fuel market in the Russian Federation; in some regions, especially in Siberia, a rather difficult situation remains. The Ministry of Agriculture is studying the demand of agricultural producers for diesel fuel with a sulfur content of 0.3–0.9% and heating oil. The specified range includes diesel fuel of Euro-3 and Euro-2 standards, writes Kommersant. Refineries with a total refining capacity of about 40 million tons of oil per year returned to fuel sales on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange after repairs. Some large enterprises, which account for more than 45 million tons of processing annually, have not yet resumed participation in tenders.
• Export. The ProZerno company reports that Russia exported its first million tons of wheat in the 2026/27 season. The Russian Grain Union records a decrease in grain export shipments from the Russian Federation from July 1 to July 20 by 13.6%. Rusagrotrans analysts note that the wheat market continued to grow under the influence of increasing tensions in the Azov and Black Seas. SovEkon has lowered its forecast for wheat exports from the Russian Federation in July from 2 million to 1.5 million tons, which will be the minimum July volume since 2017.
• Sales of Russian agricultural machinery on the domestic market in the first half of 2026 showed an increase in monetary terms (+11.2%), but production over the same period decreased (-2.2%), Rosspetsmash reports. The association calls the financial situation of most manufacturers critical in the current macroeconomics.
• The Central Bank of the Russian Federation reduced the key rate by 0.25 percentage points. – up to 14% per annum. The regulator notes that in the second quarter of 2026, the economy grew moderately, and the acceleration of inflation in the summer was largely due to one-time factors. At the same time, the estimate of sustainable inflation remains at the level of 4–5% in annual terms. The next meeting on the rate is scheduled for September 11.
• Forecasts. ICAR predicts a decrease in grain harvest in Russia in 2026 to 139 million tons; wheat harvest is estimated at 90 million tons versus 91.1 million tons in the past. The SovEkon company lowered its forecast for the wheat harvest to 88.3 million tons due to “weak prospects in the south and a reduction in spring wheat plantings.” Analysts estimate the total harvest of grains and legumes at 135.3 million tons.
• Customs duties will increase from July 29, 2026 on corn, while those on wheat and barley will remain at zero.
BELARUS • More than 1.4 million tons of grain and leguminous crops were threshed with an average yield of 40.4 c/ha, 18% of the area was harvested.
KAZAKHSTAN • The harvesting campaign has started. More than 600 thousand tons of grain have been threshed. According to preliminary data, the yield of main crops significantly exceeds last year's level.
UKRAINE • Farmers harvested about 5.5 million tons of grains and legumes from the new harvest. 11% of the forecast area has been threshed. Including, 2.5 million tons of barley (yield - 44.1 c/ha) and 2.6 million tons of wheat (yield - 41.1 c/ha) were threshed.
• The entry of ships into Black Sea ports for agricultural products has been temporarily suspended, said Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky. The decision was made by the shipowners.
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Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/33851