The analytical center of Rusagrotrans (part of Demetra-Holding) reduces the forecast for wheat exports in January 2026 from 2.8 million tons to about 2.7 million tons. By January 28, 2026, about 2.35 million tons of wheat were shipped, analysts note.
Prices for Russian wheat with protein 12.5% for delivery in February rose to a 2-month high of $231/t FOB (+$3.5/t compared to the previous week). The price for American wheat strengthened to $229/t (+$2/t), French – to $232/t (+$2/t), Romanian – to $234/t (+$1/t). Ukrainian wheat remained unchanged at $227/t, German wheat fell to $239/t (-$3/t).
On January 28, Tunisia purchased 100 thousand tons of soft wheat and 100 thousand tons of durum with delivery from February 25 to March 30. The average purchase price for soft wheat 11.5 in terms of FOB Novo was $225/t, durum - $289/t. On January 20, Jordan contracted 60 thousand tons of wheat; in terms of FOB Novo, the purchase price would have been $221/t.
The stock market strengthened last week against the background of abnormal frosts in the USA and Russia. Frost will likely not cause severe damage to winter crops in the United States. However, drought is intensifying in the southern Great Plains. In addition, the US export market is supporting the weakening dollar. The dollar index fell to its lowest levels since 2022.
Demand prices for wheat (4 cl, 12.5% protein) in deep-sea ports when delivered by road are still about 15,200-15,300 rubles/t excluding VAT, supply prices are 15,600-15,700 rubles/t excluding VAT, when delivered by rail – 15,800-16,200 rubles/t (-50 rubles/t). At low water prices remained around 14,400-14,600 rubles/t.
In the South, prices for 4 class wheat (12.5% protein, EXW elevator) remained in the range of 13,500-14,000 rubles/t without VAT, in Central Russia – 12,000-12,500 rubles/t. In the Volga region, prices returned to the levels at the end of December 11,800-12,300 rubles/t (-350 rubles/t).
In Siberia, prices for class 4 wheat remained in the range of 9200-10500 rubles/t.
Over the next two weeks, snowfall and localized freezing rain are expected during periods of thaw in Central Russia and the Volga region. As a result of warming to above-zero daytime temperatures, there is a risk of local formation of ground-in ice crust in the south of the Central Federal District.
In the South (in the Krasnodar Territory), due to rains against the background of negative night temperatures, local icing of crops occurred, but the expected warming will lead to the melting of ice and snow, replenishing soil moisture reserves.
Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/32287