HIGHLIGHTS
Production of all types of grains (wheat and coarse grains) is growing faster than previously predicted. With revised forecasts for corn (mostly US and China), wheat (Argentina, Canada) and barley (Canada, Australia), global production estimates are up 31 million tonnes from the end of November to reach a record high of 2,461 million tonnes. While an additional 16 million tonnes could be used for consumption, currently estimated at 2,416 million tonnes, almost as much could be added to end-of-year inventories estimated at 634 million tons (cumulative volume for the corresponding local marketing years). Global trade volume (July/June) is now estimated at 446 million tonnes, up 4 million tonnes from the latest forecast and 5% higher than the previous year.
The wheat harvested area is expected to decline slightly in 2026/27, and based on average productivity, next year's crop is initially forecast to be down around 2% year on year. With demand reaching a new peak, global inventories are likely to decline slightly, but total inventories among major exporters will remain at comfortable levels.
Compared to November, the forecast for global soybean production remained virtually unchanged and was only slightly below the previous year's peak level. As the slight increase in supply estimates corresponds to an increase in global demand forecasts, end-of-season total ending stocks are unchanged from the last edition of the survey at 77 million tonnes (-5 million tonnes), above average. The trade forecast remains at 187 million tonnes, up 1% on the previous year.
The global rice production forecast remains virtually unchanged from the previous estimate at 543 million tons. Due to a slight decrease in consumption estimates and an increase in carryover stocks, the forecast for reserves at the end of the 2025/26 season has been increased by 2 million tons. Expectations for trade in 2026 (January/December) have been slightly reduced, but trade volumes will still remain a record at 60 million tons (+2%).
Driven largely by weakening global soybean and wheat export prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) recently fell to a three-month low.
Thanks to higher yields (+5%) and expanded acreage (+1%), the harvest of all types of grain in 2025/26 will break all existing records, increasing by 6% compared to the previous year. Along with record corn and wheat harvests, barley and sorghum yields are also expected to reach multi-year highs. The 3% increase in consumption will be faster than usual, mainly due to the expected significant increase in feed use. After three consecutive cuts, inventories could rise 8%, potentially the fastest rate of growth in nine years. Comparably strong growth is forecast for most major exporters, with total carry-over stocks expected to be 40% higher than the previous year at 181 million tonnes. Thanks to increased flows of wheat and corn, trade is forecast to be above average at 446 million tonnes (+5%).
Global soybean production is estimated at 427 million tonnes, only slightly below the previous year's peak and well above normal levels in recent years, including a potential record crop in Brazil. With increased consumption in the feed, food and industrial segments, global consumption is expected to rise 3% year-on-year to a new high, including growth in the three major exporting countries and China. While global inventories are likely to decline, they will remain at historically comfortable levels, but major exporters' inventories will be well below previous highs. Trade volume is expected to reach a new peak (+1%).
Global rice production in 2025/26 is projected to remain broadly stable compared with the previous year, including a 1% increase in total production in major exporting countries. As food demand is driven by population growth, overall consumption will reach a new peak while stocks are projected to continue expanding, driven primarily by stockpiling in India. Thanks to strong demand from key buyers in Africa, trade in 2026 is forecast to grow by 2% compared to the previous year.
With increased supply from a large global harvest driven by good harvest results in major exporting countries, global lentil consumption is forecast to increase substantially (by 15%) in 2025/26 compared to the previous year; Asia will play a key role in this increase, driven by population growth, increased awareness of health benefits and stronger demand for processed products. With potential increases in supplies to South and Middle East Asia, trade volumes in 2026 are forecast to reach 4.9 million tonnes (+14%).
MARKET SUMMARY
Amid the overall outlook for strong global supply, the IGC's GOI index fell 4%, with falls in fob prices for wheat and soybeans outweighing net gains in rice, barley and corn.
The IGC's GOI wheat sub-index has declined 2% over the past eight weeks. Despite mixed trends in key producing countries, export prices generally remained stable due to ample supply on the global market.
As earlier gains have largely subsided in recent weeks, largely in response to higher U.S. crop forecasts, IGC's GOI corn subindex rose only slightly from November.
The IGC's GOI rice sub-index has risen 5% since the November survey, mainly due to harvest delays in Thailand due to floods and higher domestic prices in Pakistan.
Taking into account the significant drop in prices in the southern hemisphere, as well as lower prices in the United States against the backdrop of negative fundamental factors, the IGC GOI sub-index for soybeans fell by 9%.
Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/32206