From December 1 to December 20, the Russian Federation shipped 3 million 389 thousand tons of main grain crops for export, which is 14% more than in the same period last year, Interfax reports with reference to the monitoring of the Russian Grain Union.
As stated by Elena Tyurina, director of the union's analytical department, the growth was largely facilitated by a sharp increase in shipments in the second ten days of the month. In the first ten days, the dynamics were negative - minus 25.7%, she recalled. “In the second ten days of December, compared to the same period last year, a sharp increase was recorded - 1.9 times, to 1 million 927 thousand tons. As a result, the dynamics over two decades turned out to be positive - an increase of 14%, to 3 million 389 thousand tons,” she said.
According to her, wheat shipments in the second ten days of December more than doubled compared to the second ten days of December 2024 - to 1 million 679 thousand tons. Over two decades, the growth was 18.5%, to almost 3.1 million tons.
As Tyurina noted, in the second ten days of December, shipments of corn and barley also intensified. “There is still a gap from last year’s figures, but it is not as significant as it was before. The gap for corn was 20% - 189 thousand tons were shipped, for barley - 8%, 138.6 thousand tons were shipped. Let me remind you that in the first decade the gap was more significant: for corn - by 51.5%, for barley - by 77%," she said.
Tyurina reported that in December the Russian Federation exported 10 types of grains, legumes and oilseeds compared to 24 types a year earlier.
According to her data, 36 companies exported wheat compared to 69 a year ago. Shipments from December 1 to 20 went to 27 countries, a year ago there were 36. “Turkey has taken the leading position, overtaking Egypt. Exports to its market increased three times, to 556 thousand tons. The reason for this growth is the lifting of the ban on the import of wheat and the intensification of purchases of Russian grain against this background,” she explained. “Egypt, which lost the leadership, increased purchases by 7.9%, to 481 thousand tons. Iran closes the top 3 with 191.7 thousand tons. A year ago, wheat was not shipped from the Russian Federation to its market,” Tyurina said. “Then follows Sudan, where 15.7% more was sent - 140 thousand tons. Shipments to Oman increased 3.8 times, to 137.5 thousand tons.”
According to the union, exports to Israel continue to grow - by 25.7%, to 134.3 thousand tons, shipments to Morocco increased 2.7 times, and wheat trade with Brazil resumed: 67 thousand tons were sent there in the first two decades. The UAE purchased a little more - 67.5 thousand tons, which is one and a half times more than a year ago.
Tyurina also reported that the number of countries buying corn has decreased to three from seven a year ago. Iran is the leader in purchases, but volumes decreased by 24%, to 130.7 thousand tons. “At the same time, against the backdrop of Turkey’s increase in import quotas for corn and barley, shipments expectedly increased: corn - 3.3 times, up to 50 thousand tons, barley - 10 times, up to 30 thousand tons,” the expert said.
Five countries purchased barley. Saudi Arabia became the largest - 20 thousand tons, which is 2.9 times more than a year ago.
From December 1 to December 20, grains and leguminous crops were shipped through 20 ports compared to 31 years ago. Novorossiysk traditionally leads, but transshipment through its ports decreased by 8%, to 1 million 297 thousand tons. Road transshipment increased by 28%, to 629 thousand tons, shipments through Rostov-on-Don - by 5%, to 351 thousand tons, through Azov - two times, to 275 thousand tons, through Tuapse - almost 2.8 times, to 214 thousand tons.
The driver of this growth was an increase in purchases by Turkey, the expert noted.
Speaking about the price situation on the market in the second ten days of December, Tyurina said that prices for Russian wheat (FOB Novorossiysk) remained at $228 per ton. “In the face of competition with Russian wheat, French wheat fell in price by $2, to $227 per ton. As a result, Russian wheat not only lost its price discount, but became more expensive than French wheat. And this is a signal that the pace of shipments may decrease,” she believes.
Wheat producer prices continue to decline. Over the decade, grade 4 wheat fell in price by 0.9%, to 13,347 rubles per ton. In dollar terms, the decrease was 4%, to $168.3 per ton.
According to Tyurina’s forecast, taking into account the current trend as a whole, grain exports for December could amount to about 5.2 million tons versus 4.6 million last December, including 4.7 million tons of wheat versus 4 million tons, respectively.
Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/32057