The forecast for wheat exports in December 2025 remains at 4.3 million tons (in December 2024 - 4.15 million tons, 4 million tons on average over the last five years). From December 1 to December 8, 2025, about 900 thousand tons of wheat were shipped, reports the Rusagrotrans analytical center (part of Demetra-Holding).
Prices for Russian wheat with protein 12.5% for delivery in December remained at the previous week's level of $227.5/t FOB. French wheat rose in price to $228/t (+$1/t), Romanian – to $234/t (+$2/t), American – to $243/t (+$6/t), Argentinean – to $214/t (+$5/t). Ukrainian wheat 11.5% fell in price to $228/t (-$1/t). Demand prices for wheat (4 grade, 12.5% protein) in deep-sea ports when supplied by road transport decreased to 15,200-15,400 rubles/t without VAT (-400 rubles/t), when delivered by rail - unchanged 16,000 rubles/t. At low water prices remained around 14,600 rubles/t.
In the South, prices for class 4 wheat (12.5% protein, EXW elevator) weakened to 13,500-13,700 rub./t (-550 rub./t), in the Volga region - to the level of 11,800-12,400 rub./t (-150 rub./t), in Central Russia they remained at the level of 12,000-12,500 rub./t.
In Siberia, prices for class 4 wheat remained without significant changes in the range of 9200-10500 rubles/t excluding VAT. The market continues to receive support from subsidies for grain transport by rail.
According to forecasts, by the end of next week in the south of Central Russia and the south-west of the Volga region frosts of up to -15...-20°C are expected for several days along with the formation of snow cover that will protect winter crops. No significant damage to crops is expected.
On December 3, Algeria contracted for the first time since the end of October a significant volume of wheat up to 900 thousand tons of wheat (11.5% protein) at a price of $256/t C&F, which in terms of FOB Novorossiysk price was $226/t and corresponds to the current market.
The market remains under pressure from high wheat yields in major producing countries. However, the decline in the quality of milling wheat in Argentina supports demand from other countries. Statistics Canada raised its wheat harvest forecast by 3.3 million tonnes to a record 40 million tonnes (2024/25 - 35.9 million tonnes).
Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/31923