Wheat from Russia, despite the increase in the supply of grain from competing countries in the Southern Hemisphere, can gain an advantage in the world market due to higher quality, experts from the federal center Agroexport believe, writes Finmarket.
In recent months, Argentina and Australia have reported improved prospects for the 2025/26 wheat crop, the center said. Thus, in a December report, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics ABARES raised its forecast for wheat production to 35.6 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons more than what was harvested the previous season.
Argentina's national exchange BAGE raised its wheat harvest forecast to a record 25.5 million tons due to higher-than-expected yields in some regions. This is 6.9 million tons more than last season.
This situation puts pressure on wheat prices on the world market. At the same time, despite the record harvest, market participants note that a lot of wheat comes from Argentine fields with a low protein content - around 9-10%, while the Argentine export standard is 11.5%, the center said.
In this regard, a noticeable difference in quality spreads between Argentine and Russian wheat is recorded. In Argentina, the difference in prices is $15-20 per ton, in the Russian Federation - $3-5 per ton.
“The harvest of the Southern Hemisphere will in any case put pressure on the world wheat market. However, if the situation with the quality of Argentine grain remains unchanged, the demand for Russian wheat may increase,” analysts predict.
As reported, according to the Center for Assessment of Safety and Quality of Agro-Industrial Products (TSA AIC), the quality of wheat from the 2025 harvest in the Russian Federation is higher than last year. This was shown by the results of state monitoring conducted in 67 regions of the Russian Federation. The share of 3rd grade wheat at the beginning of November was 30.5% compared to 29% a year earlier. The share of 4th class wheat decreased to 47.3% from 48%, 5th class - to 22% from 23%, respectively. A small amount of wheat of the first and second classes was also detected. In general, the share of food wheat (grades 1-4) is 78% versus 77% in 2024.
Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/31918