Due to problems with logistics, the Russian Federation may not export up to 14-15 million tons of wheat - ICAR

In the 2026/27 agricultural year, the Russian Federation may not be able to export up to 14-15 million tons of wheat due to logistics restrictions in the Azov-Black Sea basin. But grain traders are no strangers to stress; they very quickly adapt to new sales routes and importers, said Dmitry Rylko, General Director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), at the international grain conference Eurasian Agricom 2026 in Astana/

According to him, in the first three months of the current season (July-September), approximately 6.4 million tons of wheat were exported from the Russian Federation. Calculations show that in the time remaining until the end of the season, with a monthly export of 2.5 million tons, total exports could reach 29 million tons with a potential of 43-43.5 million tons. “It turns out there is a gap of about 14-15 million tons, which the Russian Federation may not export enough,” quotes the expert as saying Interfax.

“We could be quite wrong, in both directions. But this is the current assessment,” he added.

According to him, currently, against the backdrop of problems in the Black and Azov Seas, alternative channels for export have already started working almost “to the fullest.”

Rylko noted that both Russian and Kazakh grain traders “this is not the first time they find themselves in such situations, under stress.” “And we see simply a tremendously rapid restructuring of everything that can be done in order to establish new export channels. The restructuring is proceeding at a rapid pace,” he said.

According to Rylko, the main transshipment channel in these conditions became the Baltic ports, “the Caspian seriously added.” Against the background of “the enormous shrinkage and collapse of the regions where we traditionally export, where very significant volumes went through the Black and Azov Seas, other export regions have grown, for example, Azerbaijan and Iran, the countries of Central Asia. And in general, many other regions have appeared,” he said.

Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/34527