As of January 14, the average price for grade 4 wheat in the European part of Russia dropped to 13,050 rubles/t ($165/t) from 13,150 rubles/t ($168/t) last week and 13,250 rubles/t ($172/t) a month ago, according to SovEkon price monitoring. This is the lowest price since July 2024, when the price of wheat was 12,900 rubles/t ($146/t). Wheat prices fell due to high supply of wheat in regions remote from ports and relatively sluggish demand.
The supply of wheat on the domestic market generally remains high, especially in the Volga region and the Center, which had a good harvest. Wheat prices in the Center and Volga region decreased by 400 rubles over the month. up to 11,700 rub./t and 11,500 rub./t, respectively. The high supply in the regions is compounded by the slow operation of the railway.
Demand from exporters for wheat has decreased markedly compared to the end of last year. Current shipment rates remain low. In the first two weeks of January, 0.7 million tons of wheat were shipped from Russian ports, compared to 0.8 million tons a year earlier and the five-year average of 1.3 million tons.
Wheat shipments from Russia's main competitor countries also decreased. According to preliminary data, in the first half of January, about 0.3 million tons of wheat were shipped from the EU compared to 0.6 million tons a year earlier. Over the same period, 0.3 million tons were shipped from Ukraine versus 0.4 million tons.
It is likely that large importers continue to wait, still counting on lower prices amid active supply of wheat from the Southern Hemisphere. On January 19, the Algerian agency OAIC purchased 600-720 thousand tons of wheat at a price of $253-254/t C&F as part of an international tender. Presumably, a significant part of the supply will come from Argentina, where export prices, against the backdrop of a record harvest, remain at record low levels for recent years in the region of $205-210/t.
An additional factor remains high supplies of wheat among consumers within the country, against the background of which they are lowering purchase prices.
“We do not rule out a further decline in prices on the domestic market in regions remote from ports. However, due to the high cost of logistics within Russia, this will not necessarily lead to a decrease in export quotations,” analysts note.
Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/32217