Russia has completed sowing winter crops for the 2026 harvest, SovEcon reported in its weekly report. As of mid-December, farmers sowed 16.1 million hectares with winter wheat compared to 16.2 million hectares a year earlier and 16.9 million hectares the year before. The area sown with winter wheat in Russia peaked at 17.8 million hectares in December 2021, after which it began to decline amid declining profitability of grain production and the introduction of export duties.
SovEkon also predicts a reduction in the area under spring wheat in 2026 to 10.7 million hectares from 11.1 million hectares in 2025 and 12.3 million hectares in 2024.
The profitability of grain production has been declining in recent years. According to SovEcon calculations, the pre-tax profit of grain producers in January–September 2025 amounted to 69 billion rubles. against 93 billion rubles. a year earlier and 181 billion rubles. in 2021. The financial situation of farmers began to deteriorate after the introduction of export duties in 2021.
At the same time, Russia's competitors in the wheat market have increased the area under winter wheat. According to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the sown area under winter wheat in the country as of mid-December amounted to 4.7 million hectares (4.4 t/ha a year earlier), which was the highest figure in five years. The French Ministry of Agriculture estimates the area under winter wheat to be the largest in three years, 4.8 million hectares (4.7 million hectares a year earlier).
The sowing campaign for the 2026 harvest in Russia took place in difficult weather conditions. Heavy rains throughout much of the season slowed planting, with the gap to last year's pace reaching 0.5 million hectares at its peak. Since October, precipitation in European Russia has returned to levels close to normal, allowing planting to be accelerated.
In the future, SovEcon expects a reduction in the area under wheat in Russia to 26.3 million hectares in 2026 from 26.9 million hectares a year earlier, coupled with a decrease in average yield to 3.2 t/ha from 3.3 t/ha. As a result, wheat production in 2026 is projected at 83.8 million tons versus 88.8 million tons this year.
Source: https://www.zerno.ru/node/32037